PC Market Shrinks 21% Amid Memory Crunch as Apple Gains Share with MacBook Neo

The global PC market shrank 21% year over year in the third quarter of 2026. Apple, however, kept its decline in check thanks to the MacBook Neo and grew its market share. The result matters because it shows how resilient a manufacturer that designs its own chips and keeps a tight grip on its supply chain can be at a time when memory prices are pushing computer prices higher.

What happened?

According to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research, 57 million PCs shipped worldwide during the quarter. Apple's Mac shipments fell 11% to 5.6 million units. But because the overall market contracted far more sharply, the company's share rose from 8.7% to 9.8%. The research firm attributes much of this resilience to the MacBook Neo.

Why did the PC market shrink so much?

Memory is at the heart of the contraction. Demand from AI data centers for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise SSDs has shifted manufacturers' capacity toward more profitable products. DRAM and NAND allocated to consumer devices became more expensive, and that increase showed up on the price tags of laptops and desktops. Computers aren't replaced as often as phones. When prices rise, users simply make do with the device they have for another year. Corporate fleet refreshes and the ongoing migration wave triggered by the end of Windows 10 support propped up demand to some extent, but not enough to halt the decline.

What's really interesting is that the cost shock didn't hit everyone equally hard. While Lenovo, HP and Dell saw declines of between 23% and 31%, Apple's drop was limited to 11%. The difference appears to come down to business model. Since 2020, Apple has used its own in-house Apple Silicon chips in Macs. In its unified memory architecture, RAM is part of the chip package. Apple negotiates its memory purchases alongside its iPhone and iPad volumes. That scale likely gives it significant leverage in long-term supply agreements. The company's hardware margins have also traditionally been wider than those of Windows manufacturers, meaning it can absorb part of the cost increase without passing it on to consumers.

Why don't Windows manufacturers have the same flexibility?

On the Windows side, the cost layers are fragmented. The processor comes from Intel, AMD or Qualcomm, the operating system license from Microsoft, and memory and storage from the open market. No manufacturer controls any of these layers on its own. Companies like HP and Dell operate on thin margins in the consumer segment. When memory gets more expensive, they either raise prices or cut RAM and SSD capacity. Both options hit entry-level sales the hardest. And this time, Apple is facing them as a competitor in exactly that segment, with the MacBook Neo.

The ASUS exception in the table shouldn't be overlooked. ASUS is the only top-five manufacturer that lost less ground than Apple. This shows that differentiation is possible in the Windows world too, through product mix and regional distribution. So Apple Silicon isn't the sole explanation for the picture. Still, the gap between HP's 31% decline and Apple's 11% suggests that vertical integration has acted as a genuine buffer in this crisis.

How will this affect users in Turkey?

In Turkey, exchange rates and taxes are already pushing computer prices up. With the global memory-driven increase layered on top, the gap between entry-level Windows laptops and affordable Mac models could narrow. For students and first-time buyers, this makes it more sensible to compare devices not just on sticker price but on how many years they'll be used.

What's next?

Counterpoint expects a 27% year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter and a flat trajectory for 2027 compared with 2026. In other words, the bottom hasn't been reached yet. Key things to watch in the coming months:

• When memory prices will stabilize, and how long data center demand will continue to absorb capacity.
• Whether Apple will hold the MacBook Neo's price despite cost pressures.
• To what extent Windows manufacturers will shift toward lower-memory configurations or Arm-based models.
• Whether Apple's share gains will translate into absolute sales growth.

Apple's success this quarter is a relative one: Mac sales still fell. Even so, the picture offers a clear lesson. During supply crises, the manufacturer that controls the chain from chips to memory finds room to maneuver between price and margin. If the memory crunch drags on, that advantage is likely to grow even larger.